Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM
Republicans won the Senate
How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM
The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM
When will we know 2024 election results?
When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM
The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024
Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM
The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania
538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout
How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM
Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up
538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM
2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality
How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM
In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states
There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM
October 25, 2024 at 5:20 PM
Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?
Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
October 25, 2024 at 5:20 PM
October 25, 2024 at 4:38 PM
Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?
538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.
October 25, 2024 at 4:38 PM
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.
The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up
As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
October 23, 2024 at 9:07 PM
Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate
What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.
October 23, 2024 at 9:07 PM
October 22, 2024 at 10:06 PM
Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?
Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 22, 2024 at 10:06 PM
October 22, 2024 at 7:36 PM
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22, 2024 at 7:36 PM
October 22, 2024 at 7:30 PM
Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles
Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22, 2024 at 7:30 PM
October 16, 2024 at 5:34 PM
The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy
How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.
October 16, 2024 at 5:34 PM
1 month ago
Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why voting patterns may shift this election
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election
Hurricanes Helene and Milton may not change many voters' minds, but they could dampen turnout in the hardest-hit areas.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024
538 does its fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Georgia, which could swing back to the GOP in 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days
Paid sick leave is on the ballot in Alaska, Nebraska, and Missouri in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris
Campaign visits probably won't make a difference in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024
Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How 538's 2024 House election forecast works
The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.
1 month ago
1 month ago
The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter
Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks
A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?
Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election
538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
1 month ago
1 month ago
How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
1 month ago
What early polls say about who won the VP debate
Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why VP debates aren't all that important
Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries
Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries
Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Economy is key, margins small in latest polling: 538
538’s Galen Druke discusses where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are leading in the 20204 presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years
538's second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
1 month ago
Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries
GOP efforts to recruit and support female candidates in primaries stalled this year, while Democratic women could expand their ranks after a strong showing.
1 month ago
2 months ago
This could be the closest presidential election since 1876
The latest 538 forecast of the 2024 presidential election has Harris and Trump essentially tied.
2 months ago
2 months ago
538's polls policy and FAQs
How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What polling says about key 2024 Senate races
538 has released U.S. Senate polling averages for the 2024 general election.
2 months ago
2 months ago
What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
2 months ago
2 months ago
How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
2 months ago