538
Follow the latest 538 news, videos, and analysis from ABC News.
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM

2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump

How accurate were polls of the 2024 election?
November 8, 2024 at 9:21 PM
Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and former first lady Melania Trump at an election night watch party at the Palm Beach Convention Center, Nov. 6, 2024, in West Palm Beach, Fla.
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM

Republicans won the Senate

How big will the Republicans' U.S. Senate majority be?
November 6, 2024 at 2:50 PM
Ohio Republican Senate candidate Bernie Moreno speaks during a watch party on election night, Tuesday, Nov. 5, 2024, in Westlake, Ohio.
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM

What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?

The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
November 5, 2024 at 4:22 PM
An Electoral College tie in the 2024 presidential election is unlikely but plausible.
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM

The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 5, 2024 at 5:45 AM
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM

49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election

Ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election related to abortion, voting, drugs, workers' rights, and more.
November 4, 2024 at 9:27 PM
There are dozens of interesting ballot measures on the ballot on Nov. 5.
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM

When will we know 2024 election results?

When will we know who won the 2024 presidential election? 538 shows you when to expect results in all 50 states.
November 1, 2024 at 5:57 PM
When to expect election results in all 50 states.
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM

The 10 state legislative chambers that could flip in 2024

Alaska, Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are hosting competitive races for state legislative chambers in 2024.
November 1, 2024 at 1:21 AM
The 2024 election has a number of highly-contested races for state legislatures around the country.
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM

The 2024 election could hinge on Pennsylvania

538's final deep dive into swing states in the 2024 election focusing on Pennslyvania voters.
October 31, 2024 at 5:15 PM
Pennsylvania is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM

Trump and Harris are both a normal polling error away from a blowout

How accurate will the polls of the 2024 presidential election be?
October 30, 2024 at 7:29 PM
Either candidate could win all seven main swing states.
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM

How to look at early voting data responsibly

With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 30, 2024 at 1:30 AM
How to look at early voting data responsibly
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM

Does only 3% of America care about democracy?

The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 30, 2024 at 1:27 AM
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM

How will young men vote in the 2024 election?

538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 30, 2024 at 1:19 AM
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM

Trump has gained in 538's forecast, but the election is still a toss-up

538's 2024 presidential election forecast shows a very close, toss-up race, with Trump taking a small lead.
October 29, 2024 at 4:50 PM
A 538 Election Update for Friday, Oct. 18.
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM

2024 has fewer polls, but they are higher quality

How polling in 2024 compares with other recent election cycles.
October 28, 2024 at 9:01 PM
The 2024 election cycle has fewer polls than past years, but data suggests that they're of higher quality.
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM

In 2024, abortion rights initiatives are on the ballot in 10 states

There are 10 states with abortion rights initiatives in the 2024 election.
October 28, 2024 at 7:35 PM
Signs supporting the Right to Abortion Initiative are displayed during a rally on Sept. 5, 2024 in Bozeman, Montana.
October 25, 2024 at 5:20 PM

Which states have the most — and least — accurate polls?

Polling is more accurate in swing states, especially in the Sun Belt.
October 25, 2024 at 5:20 PM
538 looks at polling reliability across the country – including the key battleground states.
October 25, 2024 at 4:38 PM

Can Democrats win Arizona again in 2024?

538's sixth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states of the 2024 election focuses on Arizona.
October 25, 2024 at 4:38 PM
Arizona is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM

This Florida county is struggling with inflation and housing costs. Voters don't trust either party to fix it.

The 2024 presidential election in Duval County, Florida, could be decided by inflation and housing costs.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
Jacksonville has experienced some of the steepest increases in cost of living in the country since the pandemic.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM

Why Noem blaming shooting her dog on the realities of rural life doesn’t add up

As a rural dog owner, I know Kristi Noem's story is far from normal.
October 25, 2024 at 2:51 PM
Governor of South Dakota Kristi Noem delivers remarks as she attends the 2024 Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) at the Gaylord National Resort and Convention Center in Maryland, February 23, 2024.
October 23, 2024 at 9:07 PM

Republicans have a good shot at flipping the Senate

What 538's 2024 Senate election forecast says.
October 23, 2024 at 9:07 PM
Introducing 538's 2024 Senate forecast
October 22, 2024 at 10:06 PM

Wisconsin decided the 2020 election. How will it vote in 2024?

Our fifth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states.
October 22, 2024 at 10:06 PM
The team at 538 takes a look at Wisconsin’s voting history and significance as a battleground state.
October 22, 2024 at 7:36 PM

Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close

538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22, 2024 at 7:36 PM
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22, 2024 at 7:30 PM

Republican opposition could slow the push toward electric vehicles

Policies to boost EVs are still popular, but losing support.
October 22, 2024 at 7:30 PM
A customer charges his Tesla at a new Rove EV charging center on E. 17th Street in Santa Ana, Calif., on Oct. 9, 2024.
October 16, 2024 at 5:34 PM

The 2024 election could have a big impact on education policy

How education is impacting the 2024 election and what school choice ballot measures are on the ballot.
October 16, 2024 at 5:34 PM
Several states are voting on education-related ballot measures in 2024.
1 month ago

Could recent hurricanes affect the presidential election?

The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
1 month ago
The 538 team discusses how hurricane season and election season collide, prompting it to become a political talking point this election cycle.
1 month ago

Why voting patterns may shift this election

538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
1 month ago
538’s Galen Druke asks The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik if analysts should be skeptical of data that shows a shift in voting patterns.
1 month ago

How Hurricanes Helene and Milton could affect the 2024 election

Hurricanes Helene and Milton may not change many voters' minds, but they could dampen turnout in the hardest-hit areas.
1 month ago
Vice President Kamala Harris speaks after she surveyed the damage from Hurricane Helene, in Augusta, Ga., Oct. 2, 2024. Republican presidential nominee and former President Donald Trump speaks to the press about the impact of Hurricane Helene in Evans, Ga., Oct. 4, 2024.
1 month ago

How Georgia could swing back to the GOP in 2024

538 does its fourth deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Georgia, which could swing back to the GOP in 2024.
1 month ago
Georgia is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago

3 states could vote to mandate paid sick days

Paid sick leave is on the ballot in Alaska, Nebraska, and Missouri in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
In this March 7, 2023, file photo, airport workers and supporters march during a rally at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport in Arlington, Virginia. The group, organized by the Service Employees International Union, is demanding Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority mandate paid sick leave and employer-paid health care for airport service workers at Washington National and Dulles International Airport.
1 month ago

Trump is holding more campaign events than Harris

Campaign visits probably won't make a difference in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
Former President Donald Trump has held a handful more campaign events than Vice President Kamala Harris recently – but fewer events likely won’t cost a candidate the election.
1 month ago

How redistricting could play a key role in the fight to control the House in 2024

Five states redrew their district lines and the changes could impact who wins the House in the 2024 election.
1 month ago
Congressional redistricting in North Carolina, New York, Louisiana, Alabama and Georgia could affect the race to control the U.S. House of Representatives in 2024
1 month ago

How 538's 2024 House election forecast works

The methodology of 538's 2024 House of Representatives forecast model.
1 month ago
How 538's new 2024 presidential election forecast works.
1 month ago

The 2024 race to control the House couldn't be tighter

Introducing 538's forecast for U.S. House of Representatives races in 2024.
1 month ago
Introducing 538's 2024 House forecast
1 month ago

What Americans think about the war in Gaza, a year after the Oct. 7 attacks

A year after October 7, 2023, 538 looks at polls on how Americans feel about Israel, Palestine and conflict in the Middle East.
1 month ago
Israeli army battle tanks operate in southern Israel near the border with the Gaza Strip, May 29, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territory between Israel and the Hamas movement.
1 month ago

Which way are key demographic groups leaning in the 2024 election?

Polling averages of Kamala Harris's and Donald Trump's support among Black, Hispanic, white, young, old, male, female, college-educated and non-college-educated voters.
1 month ago
A deep dive into the crosstabs of presidential polls.
1 month ago

Black and Arab American voters could swing Michigan's 2024 election

538 does its third deep dive into polling and other data in the seven swing states with Michigan, which is dependent on Black and Arab American voters.
1 month ago
Michigan is a pivotal swing state in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago

How does a VP debate affect candidate favorability? | 538 Politics Podcast

538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
1 month ago
538's Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how polls show a vice presidential debate has little to no impact on a candidate's favorability.
1 month ago

Does a VP debate impact how voters see presidential candidates?

The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago
The 538 team and The New York Times’s Ruth Igielnik discuss whether a vice presidential debate can impact how viewers see presidential candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris.
1 month ago

What early polls say about who won the VP debate

Americans are split over whether Sen. JD Vance or Gov. Tim Walz won Tuesday's vice presidential debate.
1 month ago
People watch the debate between Senator JD Vance and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz at the Gaf East Bar in Manhattan, October 1, 2024.
1 month ago

Why VP debates aren't all that important

Historically, VP debates haven't really moved the polls.
1 month ago
Democratic vice presidential candidate Minnesota Governor Tim Walz speaks during a campaign rally, Aug. 9, 2024, in Glendale, Ariz. Republican vice presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance speaks to supporters during a campaign event at the Northwestern Michigan Fair grounds, Sept. 25, 2024, in Traverse City, Mich.
1 month ago

Pro-Israel groups spent big to oust two Squad members in primaries

Pro-Israel groups focused their spending on defeating two members of the Squad, and had a fairly strong showing in Democratic primary endorsements.
1 month ago
Pro-Israel groups spent big  on Democratic primaries in 2024, including to oppose Squad members Jamaal Bowman and Cori Bush.
1 month ago

Progressive organizations were forced to play defense in the 2024 primaries

Progressive candidates won most of the open primary races they ran in for U.S. Senate, House and governor in 2024.
1 month ago
538 tracked how candidates endorsed by major progressive groups did in 2024 Democratic primaries.
1 month ago

Economy is key, margins small in latest polling: 538

538’s Galen Druke discusses where Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are leading in the 20204 presidential election.
1 month ago
VIDEO: Economy is key, margins small in latest polling: 538
1 month ago

Why the GOP could win Nevada for the first time in 20 years

538's second deep dive into polling and other data in the seven key swing states in the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago
Nevada is one of seven key swing states likely to determine the outcome of the 2024 presidential election.
1 month ago

Efforts to elect more Republican women stalled in the 2024 primaries

GOP efforts to recruit and support female candidates in primaries stalled this year, while Democratic women could expand their ranks after a strong showing.
1 month ago
More Democratic than Republican women ran in and won their congressional and gubernatorial primary contests in 2024.
2 months ago

This could be the closest presidential election since 1876

The latest 538 forecast of the 2024 presidential election has Harris and Trump essentially tied.
2 months ago
There is a divide between the northern and southern battleground states.
2 months ago

538's polls policy and FAQs

How 538 decides which polls to include in its aggregation and models.
2 months ago
Frequently asked questions about how 538 collects polls.
2 months ago

What polling says about key 2024 Senate races

538 has released U.S. Senate polling averages for the 2024 general election.
2 months ago
538 has released polling averages for key 2024 U.S. Senate races.
2 months ago

What to know about 'Black Voters for Trump' | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting block.
2 months ago
538's Galen Druke and the University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird talk about whether or not Black voters who support Trump are representative of a breakdown in this voting bloc.
2 months ago

How Harris talks about race and gender on the campaign trail | 538 Politics podcast

538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris' approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
2 months ago
538's Galen Druke, University of Maryland’s Chryl Laird and Pew Research Center’s Kiana Cox discuss Kamala Harris’s approach to talking about her race and gender during the 2024 presidential campaign.
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