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Mayoral candidate State Sen. John Whitmire waves to his supporters before speaking during his election watch party, on Nov. 7, 2023, in Houston.
Mayoral candidate State Sen. John Whitmire waves to his supporters before speaking during his election watch party, on Nov. 7, 2023, in Houston.
Dec 07
Brett Coomer/Houston Chronicle via Getty Images, FILE

Latest 538 Headlines

December 07

Everything you need to know about the election for Houston mayor

A liberal and centrist are facing off for mayor of Houston.
December 07
Mayoral candidate State Sen. John Whitmire waves to his supporters before speaking during his election watch party, on Nov. 7, 2023, in Houston.
December 07

Who will win the election for Houston mayor?

Republican and independent voters may be key in a race between two Democrats.
December 07
Republican and independent voters may be key in a race between two Democrats.
December 07

Who won the fourth Republican debate?

538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
December 07
Republican presidential debate
December 07

How much attention voters paid to Haley and DeSantis in the debate, according to data

This is how much search traffic the Republican candidates garnered in the fourth debate, according to Google trends data.
December 07
How much attention voters paid to Haley and DeSantis in the debate, according to data
December 07

Is there a crisis in issue polling?

It's tricky to figure out what really motivates people to vote.
December 07
It's tricky to figure out what really motivates people to vote.
December 07

Did the fourth Republican debate matter? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
December 07
The crew unpacks the fourth Republican primary debate from Tuscaloosa, Alabama.
December 06

Who will win the fourth Republican debate?

538 partnered with The Washington Post and Ipsos to poll Republican voters.
December 06
Republican presidential debate
December 05

Issues, not candidates, are motivating young voters

Abortion is at the center of young people's political engagement.
December 05
Issues, not candidates, are motivating young voters
December 05

Is Nikki Haley the new Ron DeSantis?

Haley's rise in GOP primary polls has her on the cusp of second place.
December 05
Haley's rise in GOP primary polls has her on the cusp of second place.
December 04

Is Nikki Haley the new Ron DeSantis? | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew discuss Haley's rise in GOP primary polls which has her on the cusp of second place.
December 04
The crew discuss Haley's rise in GOP primary polls which has her on the cusp of second place.
December 04

The fourth Republican debate may have just three participants

Qualification criteria and Trump’s strong position have winnowed the field.
December 04
Republican presidential candidate former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley puts her hand up to Vivek Ramaswamy while he speaks to her as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (C) listens during the NBC News Republican Presidential Primary Debate, Nov. 8, 2023 in Miami.
December 01

Why George Santos was too toxic for the House GOP

Almost half of Republicans voted to expel the NY representative.
December 01
Rep. George Santos faces reporters at the Capitol in Washington, on Nov. 30, 2023.
December 01

2024 is the 1st ‘AI Election.’ What does that mean?

The 538 Politics podcast looks at AI's potential impact on electoral politics.
December 01
2024 is the first ‘AI Election.’ What does that mean?
December 01

2024 is the 1st ‘AI Election.’ What does that mean?

Galen Druke speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita about his white paper, "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research."
December 01
Galen Druke speaks with Ethan Bueno de Mesquita about his white paper, "Preparing for Generative AI in the 2024 Election: Recommendations and Best Practices Based on Academic Research."
November 30

Why is Biden losing support from people of color?

His numbers among Black, Hispanic and Asian Americans have reached a new low.
November 30
"With which demographic groups has President Joe Biden lost the most support?"
November 27

Why the GOP may be ready to say goodbye to Santos| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew discuss how likely Rep. George Santos is to be expelled from Congress.
November 27
The crew discuss how likely Rep. George Santos is to be expelled from Congress.
November 27

538's polls policy and FAQs

How we decide which surveys to include in our database and models.
November 27
Frequently asked questions about how 538 collects polls.
November 21

Why Biden should be thankful it's not 2024 yet

And what some other politicians might be feeling grateful for this week.
November 21
Welcome to 538's latest politics chat.
November 21

What these swing voters have to say about the 2024 election

Galen Druke speaks to three swing voters in Simi Valley, California.
November 21
Galen Druke speaks to three swing voters in Simi Valley, California.
November 20

Everything you need to know about Utah's 2nd District special election

Republicans are favored to win, but the margin could be close.
November 20
Everything you need to know about the Utah's 2nd District special election
November 20

The Utah 2nd District special election could be closer than you think

Democrats are waging a strong campaign in this solid-red district.
November 20
In this undated file photo which appears on her campaign website, Kathleen Riebe is shown. | In this Aug. 4, 2023, file photo, Celeste Maloy is shown in Farmington, Utah.
November 16

The fight for working-class voters | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

Non-college-educated voters have shifted right but it remains to be seen if they will they stay there.
November 16
The fight for working-class voters
November 13

If the 2024 election were held today, would Trump win?

The crew looks at what all the data says one year out from the 2024 elections.
November 13
VIDEO: If the 2024 election were held today, would Trump win?
November 09

Haley takes on Ramaswamy and DeSantis in third GOP debate

The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.
November 09
The crew reacts to the third Republican primary debate in this late-night edition of the 538 Politics podcast.
November 08

The 2023 elections were good for Democrats | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024.
November 08
The crew unpacks the results from election night 2023 and looks ahead to 2024.
November 06
VIDEO: Will Kentucky and Mississippi elect Democrats?| FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
November 03

2023 elections to watch: Mississippi governor

Democrats could win the governor's office for the first time since 1999.
November 03
Democrats could win the governor's office for the first time since 1999.
November 02

Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'

The former congressman and recent Texas transplant explains why he's not done with politics just yet.
November 02
VIDEO: Adam Kinzinger muses: ‘I would love to run against Ted Cruz'
November 02

2023 elections to watch: Kentucky governor

Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular, but Kentucky is a red state.
November 02
Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear is popular, but Kentucky is a red state.
November 01

2023 elections to watch: Ohio's abortion vote

A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.
November 01
A ballot measure could enshrine abortion rights in the Ohio Constitution.
October 30

Pence is out, Phillips is in | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast

The crew discusses former Vice President Mike Pence dropping out of the Republican primary race.
October 30
VIDEO: Pence is out, Phillips is in | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast
October 30

Why is Rep. Dean Phillips challenging President Joe Biden?

The crew looks at why Minnesota Representative Dean Phillips entered the Democratic primary race.
October 30
VIDEO: Why is Rep. Dean Phillips challenging President Joe Biden?

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